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Best first move for P2
Posted:
Jul 16, 2011, 3:50 PM
Somewhat related to the very interesting thread on First Move Advantage (good to see you back, Alison!), but I think a different enough subject to deserve a new thread - P2 has a theoretically strongest first move. It speaks well of Pente's complexity that the identity of that move is far from clear, whether we're talking about Pente theory or Pente practice.
In theory:
In karlw's 2006 admirable attempt to formalize Pente opening theory, he organized P2's first moves into three groups, roughly corresponding to Near, Middle, and Far, and suggested (I'm not sure what he'd say today) that the mid-range openings - M10, N10, M8, N8 - were best.
In practice:
Practical results, whether based on 1) the masses or 2) the masters, don't help to clarify the matter.
1) The Pente.org database shows P2 winning more games than he loses when the first move is either the near L9 (52.2%), the mid-range N9 (53.8%), or the far O9 (55.6%).
2) More relevantly, if our quest is theoretically Perfect Play, when we narrow the focus to only P2 wins by high-rated players (1900+) against other high-rated players on BrainKing for 2011 thus far, we find that roughly a couple dozen come from P2's L9, and a couple dozen from P2's long-range O9, with the mid-range M10 a somewhat distant third.
This is just a beginning look at the data. That L9 and O9 lead to the greatest raw numbers of P2 wins in Master vs. Master games in 2011 could be more because they're tried more often than because they're theoretically strongest. A still more relevant question, from the "What's strongest in practice" perspective, would be "In Master vs. Master games, which P2 opening has the highest win *percentage*" Still to be determined.
Back to theory:
Pente opening theory continues to have a lot of room for development. How does P2 best take advantage of the white-handicapping Tournament Rule? By playing near, mid-range, or far? Seemingly clear-cut question. But no clear answer, whether going by "theory" (such as it is) or Master-level preference/results.
So, does anyone have any plausible theoretical thoughts/arguments/suggestions on the question of how P2 most strongly capitalizes on the Tournament Rule, on the assumption of best or very strong play by both sides? By playing near (e.g. L9), mid-range (e.g. M10), or far (e.g. O9)? If you have a personal preference, can you explain why, in Pente-theoretical terms?
Message was edited by: aleph_1 at Jul 17, 2011 8:41 AM
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Re: Best first move for P2
Posted:
Jul 17, 2011, 3:09 PM
Just to follow up: In the 2011 year-to-date Master-vs-Master turn-based tournament games at Brainking - the closest we can get to Perfect Play, though perhaps it's not that close - it's looking so far as if the P2 first move with the highest win percentage is O9. Nosovs played it 9 times against other masters and won 6 of them; I tried it 16 times, winning 10; it's not dein's most-played, but when he's used it he's won 4 out of 5 - likewowman2cool had several wins with it, etc.
So in practice at the highest level, currently it's O9. Are there likewise good *theoretical* reasons why O9 should be best for P2? Does playing far from K10 use the Tournament Rule to P2's maximum advantage?
Or is O9 just not being handled as well as it could be, and will its success fade, since some other move, perhaps a mid-range one, is actually best in the absolute, theoretical, mathematical, all-things-considered, God'-perspective sense? Brf does well as P2 against other masters with M10 (5 wins out of 6 tries in 2011). Karlw and Novatis are having interesting results with N10.
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Re: Best first move for P2
Posted:
Jul 17, 2011, 7:45 PM
i think there is a difference between strongest move and most popular at the time. you question is interesting and is not easily answered in a nut shell perhaps. there are certain principles, certain histories of moves, and certain human behaviors to consider when answering this. the question on one hand is what is truth in perfect play in god vs god. on the other hand the question is what is strongest for P2 in human vs human in regards to top level players. i have noticed that in the pool of players there are some leaders at a given time, and the followers. whom is the leader and follower tends to rotate. there are P2 fads that are trendy for a bit, and this happens for complex reasons, and beyond that this occurrence often harbors human misconceptions. then there are those P1s that get spooked, and other P1s that don't. i have seen a repeat in history of P2's evolutions, and exploits whether pseudo or not, the 3rd move of white becomes a no no move. how ever it doesn't stop there like it should. P1 becomes "Spooked". this is a result of the leader and follower syndrome. examples are in order i suppose now. well,.. we can look at; K10,N8,N11,P10 for example. any of you whom are up on opening history of the last few years know what im talking about. here P1's popular 3rd move (by karlw) was K11. as it turns out, K11 3rd was sure loss via exploit discovered by nosovs. this discovery became famous in the masters circle. and many players became "Spooked". players tried changing the 3rd from K11 to K12. and found them selves once again losing. keep in mind that nosovs had been using N11 2nd move as P1 him self, as i continue to explain you will see why that is relevant. so,.. the K11 and K12 3rds both were losing. what players didn't know was one actually wins and other is sure loss. and beyond that, players didn't realize that P1 had an even better 3rd to try, which was actually L13.
any how, so nosovs knew all this stuff. however being a leader of the pool at that point in that open, he decided to capitalize on this as he should. instead of showing right away the correct responses in the K10,N8,N11,P10 he decided to change P1's second move to N12. yes yes both N11 and N12 for P1's 2nd move work, but that is far from the point here.
so what happened when he beat player's K11 and K12 3rds in the K10,N8,N11,P10 open and then switched to N12 second for P1? was it a surprise to see most all top players switch to N12 for P1's second move??? when he switched to N12 after whooping on N11 from the P2 seat, what did every one think???
they all thought this,.."N11 for P1's second seems to be sure loss, id better switch to N12 like nosovs did" like lemmings diving off a cliff. and yes i was one of those lemmings sadly. you might ask, "but zoeyk, if N12 was a winning second then why was it bad for them to follow to the N12 switch"? well,..its ok to switch to N12 under certain criteria. criteria that nosovs had, however the others seemingly did not. N12 introduced a whole new world of tactical play potentials. if you can find a exploit to beat the popular white 3rd, and make others think that it might had been the 2nd move of white that was wrong, and get them to switch to an entirely new P1 2nd, then you have just resurrected, re-birthed a P2 first move into an entirely new opening world of possibilities. the new and unknown makes it strong in human play,.. not in actual perfect play, this is important to understand. a new 2nd as white prompts by definition "Tactical Positions" early on. this is not the only tactic by P2,.. how ever this is a very sought after tactic to get your hands on.
any how so at this time N8 was very popular,.. and in posts it was seen written that many masters opinions voiced in saying they thought that one of the very strongest moves for P2 ever was N8. human misconceptions. eventually nosovs began using N11 instead of N12 and revealed his secrets to those whom had the eyes to catch what was being shown, and understand the bigger picture.
i might post again with more. i do have much more to say about this. and also i have more history stories of opens and the masters pool of reactions. such as M10 for example. another interesting subject to address.
although im giving you a tid bit of info here ive failed to answer your question i realize. it will take me several more posts to get around to actually answering it from my opinionated perspective.
to give a little more info but with out in depth explanation ill say a couple more things i suppose. in circa 2010 richard played L9 in all his games with out having a plan and simply said this, "it is my belief that L9 has been studied the very least compared to the others for P2's first move." and in circa 2010 while me and karlw had a conversation we agreed that K9 seemed to be the strongest first for P2 simply because the way we saw it K9 can address the multitude of varying P1 2nd moves better than any other P2 1st move.
do i think O9 is the strongest move? no i surely do not think such. do i think O9 is a weak move, no i don't think that either. O9 is ok and has its place. but don't let data base percentages and master's fads/trends and masters getting swept sway you to think that it makes O9 strongest. there is much much more to consider. and to see you need to take a out side observers perspective. remove your self from the pool's blinders so to speak.
~z
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Re: Best first move for P2
Posted:
Jul 17, 2011, 9:01 PM
< Zoeyk: i think there is a difference between strongest move and most popular at the time. >
Definitely; it's important to start with that distinction. By P2's "best" first move do we mean:
1) "Best" in the practical sense that it's most likely to result in a victory at the current time?
2) "Best" in the theoretical sense that, current knowledge and trends aside, it allows P2 to most advantageously exploit the Tournament Rule, resulting in P2's maximum length of survival (or perhaps even a forced win tree) given perfect play.
What I'm most interested in is not just which P2 first move is "best" in high-level practice - that's easy to determine (right now it's O9) and perhaps (I'd want to verify this) that changes over time. What I'm interested in is which P2 move is likely to be best in the absolute, theoretical sense, and why. And I do think master-vs.-master turn-based play can provide a good clue toward that answer, increasingly so as it continues to progress. And right now that clue seems to be hinting "O9." Because K9, L9, all other tries are evidently easier for most masters to win against.
Zoeyk, your discussion of the history of N8 is interesting. Your point being that we shouldn't be tempted to suspect that the move that has been best (most often successful) in high-level turn-based play (O9) is also the absolute best theoretically. But a) Do we know that O9 wasn't still the most successful, even when N8 was hot? And b) Even if not, we know more now than we did when N8 was hot. Given our best knowledge to date, O9 seems to be the best move. It is the best in practice, and seems to at least have no obvious competitors for being the best in theory.
Looking at an argument for another possibility:
< Zoeyk: in circa 2010 while me and karlw had a conversation we agreed that K9 seemed to be the strongest first for P2 simply because the way we saw it K9 can address the multitude of varying P1 2nd moves better than any other P2 1st move. >
But is that supported in practice? In 2011 master-vs.-master games (both players with BK ratings above 1900) where P2 starts with K9: s3v3n tried it twice and won zero; karlw tried it five times and won zero; dein was 1 out of three; even nosovs won with it only once in five tries. I don't want to be too hasty about concluding "So, no, K9's obviously not the theoretically strongest first for P2" - maybe it actually is - but anyone wanting to argue for that would need to be able to plausibly answer the question of why it's less successful than other P2 first moves in high-level play.
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Re: Best first move for P2
Posted:
Jul 17, 2011, 9:08 PM
back to the O9 thing. now i haven't been keeping up with all the games at bk lately. so i'll begin here with assumptions. i'll guess that happy and water dancer winning as P2 was what began this new trend of O9. in those games P1 used the classic J7 2nd move. J7 lost, players got spooked and switched to new 2nds as P1. and here is where O9 begins becoming strong. not by its own merit so much, but more over due to the fact that everyone's P1 2nds scattered looking for a new way. there enters tactical play.
the truth tho is that J7 is a good move to answer O9. the issue is choosing the correct 3rd. granted not every player switches its P1 2nd because of being spooked. sometimes they just want to have a unique answer to try and set them apart from the common master. the need for individuality. in the case of being spooked how ever, these players should realize the 2nd is ok in all of the instances and try to solve the flawed 3rd instead. to move to a new second because you gave up on it in regards to solving, makes you a weaker player.
now, how ever, moving to a new second move as P1 to embrace something new and to create a individualized uniqueness, or to show off that you go into unknown tactical situations with out fear as P1 is ok. just so long as your not doing it to run from a problem that may have been solvable but your just to spooked to deal with it. so in short, when moving from old to new, there are usually two reasons. your either embracing the new, or your running from the old. one is progression in style, something like graduating to the next level, the other is refusal to face ones own fears, giving up, failure.
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Re: Best first move for P2
Posted:
Jul 17, 2011, 9:29 PM
i challenge any one to beat me with O9 turn based, even nosovs. O9 is not the strongest move,.. it seeming strongest is an illusion. im not calling it weak, like i said it has its place, but it ain't the strongest. K9 did horrible one year, and O9 did great another year, and this is a proof of something? this is limited deductions. there were years in which K9 was most feared. man i remember back in 2007 and K9-M8 combo was vicious.
the data base unfortunately is utter crap when looking at % of win/lose. never believe that thing, its a lier by nature.
trust me, by next year O9 will be a crap move and there will be a new hot move every one is using. happens every season.
players are less familiar with O9 is all. once familiar it will be yawned at. now days we are much less scared of K9-M8 because we are familiar. but when we were not familiar it was a beast. misconceptions of human perspectives when looking at the box from inside the box. IMO
yes granted there will always be new novelties in mid game coming forward. thats normal. but the biggest step as P1 after picking a second move,.. the biggest step is finding the perfect 3rds. once we have that basis locked in the rest we deal with as it comes. and if we find we are wrong about our 3rd, we dont make a new 2nd, we make a new 3rd and keep the original 2nd. other wise we admit further weakness.
after this we can make other P1 2nds that we alternate between. this we do for multiple reasons, just so long as the reason is not for running in fear. and yes there is a difference between dodging a prepared line and running in fear. dodging is more for controlling time lapse, and less about fear of sure loss by way of novelty exploit.
the truth is all the moves are crap and all are strongest, just depends how you look at it. they all lose in perfect play, and they all win viciously when the human gets sloppy for a multitude of reasons.
in human play i just dont think there is one move better than all others. its more like there is a best move vs a certain individual in that moment that will be strongest.
sorry if i sound over spoken and overly opinionated, i just speak how i feel on my thoughts.
Message was edited by: zoeyk at Jul 17, 2011 3:51 PM
Message was edited by: zoeyk at Jul 17, 2011 3:54 PM
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Re: Best first move for P2
Posted:
Jul 17, 2011, 10:07 PM
a question to you. how long have you been in the loop here with us watching the evolution of the reds circle and moves with in? i ask this to get an idea of how much we are or are not on the same page as to the history of such. for example if i had just joined this site a year or 2 ago my perception would be much more limited now in comparison to the actual of how i see things is now.
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Re: Best first move for P2
Posted:
Jul 17, 2011, 10:17 PM
Zoey, I also enjoyed your examination of the N8 opening and player's psychology interfering with strategy.
Aleph, I have to agree with zoey's point about trends in P2 firsts and the deceitful nature of the db whenever you look for large scale, macro-level patterns. I think I posted somewhere that I did this for a while and it bit me in the ***. The db is only good for micro-level analyses.
As for the recent success of 1...o9 and 1...n10, let me take you back to 2007-2008, when I and others made a killing with 1...k9. Seconds such as j11, l8, and especially m8 (which i did the most damage with) were pretty much standard for most top players in tournaments. Each time a P1 third gained traction, I could do what zoey talked about: vary my play as P1 and P2 to muddy up the waters and "spook" players away from the strong third. I believe I was able to accomplish this because, like nosovs for the n8 line, i pioneered many of the m8 responses, which other players (like zoey) studied in the db to construct responses. After a while, however, the top players discovered the true best 3rds for all our favorite 2nds after k9, so it was inevitable that we turned to other 2nds.
To answer the topical question, I think K9 and L9 are probably the statistically strongest P2 openings because the outer openings rely more on P1 making a faulty 2nd or 3rd than on the actual strength of the midgame. In real life, however, even the masters occasionally mess up an outer opening like an o9 or n10 because they've generally studied responses much less than the close openings.
It's no use going back to yesterday, because I was a different person then.
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Re: Best first move for P2
Posted:
Jul 18, 2011, 7:53 AM
I'll toss in a few thoughts here.
"in those games P1 used the classic J7 2nd move."
To me, this statement is a bit of an oxymoron. In my experience, there is nothing "classic" about choosing J7 as a second move for white against ANY P2 first move. This sort of move was almost never used until relatively recently (within the last few years). In fact, I might be the only top player these days who insists that this move is actually a mistake, and if 1 ... O9 is having a lot of success recently then that might be your reason right there.
----------------
I'll stick to the theoretical "best" first move, as opposed to the "most popular" or "most likely to win at this particular moment" scenarios.
In my opinion, there are two "best" moves for the P2 first move, depending on how you wish to approach that particular game philosophically. These two moves are either 1 ... K9, or 1 ... N8. The move to K9 is a more defensive, counter-attacking sort of move, whereas the N8 move is a more aggressive, offensive-minded move.
To give some background as to why I describe these two moves as the "best" moves, I'll describe a couple of broad, conceptual / theoretical aspects about the game which come into play in this discussion. First, horizontal and vertical "potentials" are generally stronger than diagonal potentials, and both of these are generally stronger than two disjointed stones. In addition, certain common "shapes" which can be quickly created by P1 while playing under Tournament Rules are generally stronger than others. For example, the "L" and the "hat" are generally stronger than the "Big T" or the "Little t". The last concept is a bit less tangible, but is still important -- it has to do with the adjacency of your stones to your opponent's stones. In general, if stones are adjacent, and you do not have the initiative, your stones can become vulnorable to keystone attack and/or forced capture situations. For example, P1 has stones at K10 and K8 and P2 has a stone at K7 and P1 will play the next stone. Now, if P1 plays K9, P2 is going to be forced to block in such a way that it pairs up his own stones, becoming vulnorable to a keystone attack, now or in the future. Even if P1 is not able to take advantage of this sequence right away, these sorts of subtle relationships between the two players' stones and how they are adjacent to each other can determine the relative strength of the position, even when relatively few moves have been played.
With the K9 move, yes, P2 is playing adjacent to P1, but he is already directly blocking one of P1's vertical or horizontal paths of attack. As zoey mentioned in his conversation with karlw, they agreed that this move does the best job of thwarting the most possible P1 attacking lines. This is true, and I have had this same conversation with top players for years. At one point years ago, almost everyone was playing L9 and I started switching to playing K9 a lot more often. When asked about it, I tried to explain this idea that verticals and horizontals are strong and that this move blocks one of these right off the bat. For example, if P1 were to play 2. K13, it can be argued that P2 might already be winning -- which is extremely rare. This cuts down on the possible vertical/horizontal lines that P1 can continue with. (As I hinted at before, I believe that it is always correct to play on one of the axes, 3 spaces from center, as your P1 second move) Another way to look at it is in terms of the strong shapes. Consider the "L" shape, made up of K10, G10 and G8. This shape has many straightforward paths to a forcing victory, but, if the opponent were to possess a single stone at L10, blocking the long horizontal potential, all of a sudden this shape's continuation becomes very weak (only G7 creates a path for forcing moves but can often be problematic to try). Notice that if the stone were at L9 instead, the shape is still extremely strong. In this sense, the K9 move is an excellent defensive move and is far superior to L9 in these aspects.
The problem with K9 is that it creates an adjacent stone at a point in the game when P1 still has a strong advantage. A good P1 player will keep their eye on that stone and try to maneuver the position into one that can exploit that stone's location with respect to the rest of the stones on the board, perhaps forcing P2 to pair up in a keystone attack and/or forced capture situation. (Note that the Tournament Rule prevents P1 from immediately doing this with the second move, which is the main reason why this rule helps to balance play as effectively as it does.)
The N8 move is the exact opposite. It is played at a location that is NOT directly adjacent to the P1 first move of K10. In addition, P1 is unable to play any second move that lies on an axis and is simultaneously adjacent to the N8 stone. It is very important to note that for ALL other reasonable P2 first moves (this does not include O8 or O7), P1 IS able to play on an axis AND in such a way that one of the first two stones will be adjacent to the P2 first move. For example, against 1 ... O9, a very straightforward counter-move is to simply respond with 2. N10. This is a mirror image of a position resulting from 1. K10, L9; 2. K13. This often results in a "rear cross" opening and many players would consider this to be less desirable to 1. K10, L9; 2. N10 which will usually end up in a "wedge" opening, but it's still a winning position and one that is often studied. The point is that there is no similar way to "simplify" the N8 opening with the second move -- in order to play adjacent on the second move, P1 would be forced to play off-axis.
By the same token, the 1 ... N8 move in and of itself doesn't actually defend against anything. It is not blocking any potentials or paths that could be created on the second move. Therefore, this move is usually not played in a defensive, passive posture -- instead it is often played in an aggressive manner, such as attempting to create keystone attacks that disrupt P1's winning line, stealing the initiative in the process.
If I were to guess, I would think that K9 might be mathematically superior and N8 might be tactically superior in terms of creating complexity. So, these two moves are both great for different reasons. Which one you choose will depend a lot on your own philosophy and what you perceive your opponent's strengths and weaknesses to be.
By the way, the other "reasonable" P2 first moves are all decent enough moves to try. If K9 and N8 are the two extremes of the spectrum that I've described here, each of the other moves will fall somewhere inbetween, and appropriate strategies for their use will be dictated accordingly.
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Re: Best first move for P2
Posted:
Jul 19, 2011, 12:15 AM
Zoeyk writes: < a question to you. how long have you been in the loop here with us watching the evolution of the reds circle and moves with in? >
I've been studying Pente for over 20 years, but following and participating in online play, (primarily at Brainking, where most of the master-on-master turn-based goes on) for only about the last 1-2 years. There's no question that you guys know much more on the history of high-level play, and I'll gladly defer to and learn from you on that subject.
Up2ng, that's a great detailed, theory-oriented discussion of your picks for P2's best opening move - exactly what I was looking for. Interestingly, despite its mediocre performance at the highest level of play, the three of you (zoey, karl, up2ng) seem unanimous in promoting K9 as best for P2, or at least in the top two.
And on the issue of the high O9 success rate in the closest thing we have to perfect play (turn-based, both players highly ranked) - you seem unanimous in explaining that as having more to do with most of the world's best players simply not knowing how to best respond to O9 these days, than with the move's inherent theoretical strength. Very interesting.
I'd like to respectfully submit what I think is a plausible theoretical case for actually preferring O9 to K9 on the basis of theory as well as high-level practice. But I want to do it carefully and correctly, and that will take time, so more later. In the meantime, I'm always interested in any additional thoughts you or anyone else might have on this.
Re: Best first move for P2
Posted:
Jul 19, 2011, 3:40 AM
My two cents worth:
Against someone who doesn't really know what he is doing, O9 is best in my opinion. It can be very hard to get right for P1.
Against someone who does know what he is doing, the best move is something he has misplayed against many times in the past. Of course finding this line is easier said than done....
I'd say more, but I am only getting a penny for my thoughts, while it costs me two cents to say something. Somewhere I am getting ripped off. Maybe it is inflation?
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Re: Best first move for P2
Posted:
Jul 19, 2011, 1:00 PM
@happy, in regards to you getting a penny and spending 2 pennies. ask not what your community can do for you, ask what you can do for your community. its good to share knowledge. imo
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Re: Best first move for P2
Posted:
Jul 20, 2011, 2:27 AM
Hi Aleph, thanks for the welcome back and this new thread. But I am not really back, just on a break from other things for a couple of weeks. Couldn't resist my pet topic is all.
I just wanted to say that this thread is very interesting to me. These are valuable insights from everyone. The game seems to be still very far from solved.
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Re: Best first move for P2
Posted:
Jul 21, 2011, 1:57 PM
up2ng said; In my experience, there is nothing "classic" about choosing J7 as a second move for white against ANY P2 first move. This sort of move was almost never used until relatively recently (within the last few years). In fact, I might be the only top player these days who insists that this move is actually a mistake, and if 1 ... O9 is having a lot of success recently then that might be your reason right there.
z~ as for the classic remark. i realize it isn't classic in the sense of moves dating back to 1980, or even 1999. but it has been around while ive been at this site, so for me it is classic. karlw was the one that began popularizing it back in 2006. and it caught on with several top players including my self in these last 5 years. i don't limit my self to using a special jump 2nd to answer O9. i also use a 2 jump such as G10. with that said, i still stand by J7 and don't consider it a mistake yet.
how ever your theory of a special jump being wrong for P1's second may be correct in another opening, such as K10,M10,G9. im not certain of it yet tho.
but, in the opens of;
K10,O9,J7
K10,N8,N11
K10,K7,G9
K10,O8,L13
i believe that P1 has sure win.
feel free to challenge me to a turn based game to prove me wrong.
now for the following opens using a special jump that are suspect imo. as far as i can tell, much of these P1 2nds are mostly popularized by richardiii.
K10,M8,G12
K10,M10,G12
K10,M10,L7
K10,M10,J7
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