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Turn-based sets
Posted:
May 1, 2006, 10:39 PM
Hey up2ng, resident set guru. I have a question concerning the ratings formulas and sets.
Basically, my question is when do we switch from the provisional ratings formula to the established ratings formula. Is it after 20 games or 20 sets?
If its 20 games then it will be possible to play 20+ games without ever having a ratings change. In an extreme example you could start 20 sets and complete the first game in the set for all of them, then complete the 2nd game for all of them and you would have all 20 calculated with the established formula.
I'm ok with it being 20 sets, what do you think? Also, does it make sense to track wins/losses/streak by games anymore, or should it be by sets?
We could track game win/losses and set win/losses but that just seems confusing.
I guess I am leaning towards tracking wins/losses/streaks and now draws by sets. So your stats would only get updated once you complete a set.
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Re: Turn-based sets
Posted:
May 3, 2006, 5:23 AM
Dweebo it's great to see you trying to make more progress on your task list! And yeah, all this stuff you thought of does make it seem more complicated than it is at first glance.
The question of the provisional formula is interesting. I think if you are playing a set, the entire set should count as one match, so playing 20 sets makes more sense than playing 20 games. However, I would like to see it go one more step. I think a player should complete 20 sets that end in a win or a loss before switching to the established status. The reason is that a draw really doesn't give any information about the skill of the player. You may have been much better or much worse than your opponent and end in a draw either way. All a draw tells you is that you and your opponent were equally able (or unable) to take advantage of the inherant P1 advantage built into the game. It is the expected outcome, and in my opinion, it should result in a recorded match as a draw with no change in ratings of either player. I know that point is contraversial and I'm not sure how you decided to do it, but that's what I think a draw means and should result in. So, if a draw results in no change in ratings, it also should not be counted as one of the 20 matches towards becoming an established player.
Clearly, there is a downside to such a policy. A player could potentially play hundreds of sets and not become established. In fact, if he stays with opponents near his own skill level, this would be expected -- especially with highly skilled players where the P1 advantage becomes a larger and larger factor in practice. I bet on average it would take 50 or less sets to register a combination of 20 wins and losses. If you think this is high, perhaps a compromise might be at least 10 wins or losses with a minimum of 20 total sets.
Next, the question of starting more than one set at the same time without completing them. I assume we are only talking about turn-based play for now. I think at the start of a SET, certain data should be collected and recorded. For one thing, your rating and your opponent's rating should be recorded and frozen. The possible ratings change at the end of the set should be based on these figures, not on the ratings of each player at the end of the set (perhaps 6 months from now, who knows? A lot may have changed...) Actually, it might be even more fair for the ratings to be frozen at the time of the INVITATION, but I digress... Anyway, one of those things to store should probably be whether you are playing on the established or provisional rating system which would be locked in for that set, regardless of how many other sets are started and completed before you complete this set. Hmm, I just realized that would cause some logic problems -- that's a tough one I'll have to think more on that one.
I agree that the best way to track wins/losses/streaks and draws should be based on the result of the set for set-based play. I guess the bigger question is whether you plan to offer both modes of play -- set-based and game-based. In my opinion, the only way to do this would be to make them seperate game types, which essentially doubles your number of game types ... again. I'm not sure this is necessary though, especially for turn-based play where I'm under the impression that you will be wiping out everyone's stats once beta testing is over and we will all have a clean slate -- so there is no reason to "preserve" previous game-based data if you will only be offering set-based play. In my opinion, there should be an option to play unrated and perhaps a grayed out option to play a single game would become available only for unrated games.
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Re: Turn-based sets
Posted:
May 3, 2006, 3:51 PM
Thanks up2ng, I am definitely going to be changing RATED turn-based games to require sets, and therefore statistics will be recorded for sets, not games. My questions were regarding turn-based, I am not going to mess with live games yet.
Like you assumed, if you play UNRATED games, then you can of course just play one game and choose which side you want. Since unrated games don't affect your ratings or stats it doesn't matter.
Of course a draw means there is no change in ratings, that is the whole point of sets right I understand your logic about not counting draws toward the 20 required games to become established, I hadn't considered that. I don't think it matters too much even if you were to play 200 sets and you are still not established.
I don't think I agree with your idea of recording the ratings of the players at the start of the game and using those to change the ratings at the end. I can sort of see what you are trying to achieve maybe.
Let me go through an example, thats how I understand things the best. Lets say I am a 1200 player and you are a 1700 player at the start of a set. Our set allows 10 days per move and we use all of them. Before our set is completed I have completed other sets and am now a 1800 player, you are still 1700. When our set completes (and is not a draw) the question is which of my ratings do we use to calculate our new ratings? After thinking about this for a minute or two I don't we can really determine whether it makes more sense to use 1200 or 1800. Maybe I played our first game together with the skill of a 1200 player and THEN I played other sets and learned alot of stuff and improved to 1800 for our 2nd game. Or maybe I shot up to 1800 before you even made the 1st move of the 1st game. Or it could be that I stayed near 1200 until the final moves of our 2nd game. I don't think there is a solution to this problem, we just have to assume that most of the time the change in ratings across a set won't be that big.
And one final issue, what to do with existing turn-based players stats that have played already? I would really hate to just get rid of them, but maybe that is all we can do...at least we'll only annoy a few dozen players instead of all players.
I understand your logic about not counting draws toward the 20 required games to become established, I hadn't considered that. I don't think it matters too much even if you were to play 200 sets and you are still not established.